A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
