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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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